The latest fall season outlook by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is out, and it’s calling for balmy and possibly hot conditions for much of the country in the fall.
NOAA’s outlook puts much of the country with a higher chance of a warmer fall than normal, with the highest chance of warmer-than-average temperatures in the Southwest and New England. This means that most of the country will likely be milder than what is usually expected from September to November.
September in a particular region could feature typical fall conditions, but October and November could end up well above normal, swaying the three-month average to above normal for the entire season.
For example, average high temperatures for Phoenix, one of the hottest cities in the country, range from 104 degrees at the beginning of fall to 70 degrees toward the end of fall. New York City ranges from 76 degrees at the start of fall to 54 degrees through November.
According to the Environmental Protection Agency and NOAA, falls in the contiguous United States have been getting warmer since the early 1900s, with the last few falls being warmer than the 30-year average.
Fall 2024 was the warmest on average for the country in 130 years, with more than half of all U.S. states ranking among the top-three warmest falls.
Climate Central also found that warmer falls extend the growing and allergy seasons, as well as the wildfire season for the West.
The extended warmth affects the fall foliage — a natural spectacle that dazzles the country every fall and boosts local tourism. According to Columbia University, warmer falls can delay the start of changing leaves, shorten the fall foliage season overall, and reduce the vibrancy and color quality of fall foliage.