by Amanda Watford, Oregon Capital Chronicle
August 18, 2026
Violent crime in the United States fell by an estimated 9.3% in 2025, marking the largest year-to-year decline in the national violent crime rate since the FBI began estimating crime in 1936, according to new national data.
The estimated murder and nonnegligent manslaughter rate also fell 18.1%, to 4.1 killings per 100,000 people — tying the lowest rate recorded since national estimates began. The rate matches those recorded in 1955 and 1956, according to the FBI.
The decline across major crime categories was broad. The estimated robbery rate fell 18.5%, aggravated assault fell 7.2% and rape fell 7.6%. Property crime also dropped sharply, declining 12.4% from 2024. Motor vehicle theft fell 22.7%, while burglary declined 15.8%.
The FBI’s figures are based on reports of crimes submitted by law enforcement agencies, meaning they do not capture offenses that aren’t reported to police. Participation in the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting program is voluntary, and agencies submit their data either through state programs or directly to the FBI.
In 2025, 17,075 law enforcement agencies submitted data, covering 96.2% of the U.S. population. Every city agency with populations over a million submitted a full year of data.
Crime statistics can be affected by changes in reporting practices and public willingness to report crimes, particularly as trust in law enforcement and government institutions varies.
An estimated 1.12 million violent crimes occurred nationwide in 2025, with the violent crime rate falling from 362.9 offenses per 100,000 people in 2024, to 327.6 per 100,000 in 2025.
The findings largely align with other recent estimates. The nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice, which analyzed crime trends in 40 large U.S. cities, found that 11 of 13 offenses it tracked, including homicide, declined in 2025.
The sharp drop in homicides has persisted in 2026. Data analyzed by the council shows killings continued to decline through June across the cities it tracks, putting the nation on pace for another historic low.
“The homicide drop is historic and crystal clear. But right now, what’s driving it is about as clear as a glass of milk,” Adam Gelb, the council’s president and CEO, said in a statement.
“Rates are falling in cities with very different public safety strategies, economic conditions, and political leadership,” Gelb said. “The consistency across the map should make us cautious about handing credit to any one leader, party, policy, or program before the evidence catches up.”
Experts say it is difficult to pinpoint exactly what is driving the declines. Researchers have pointed to a range of possible factors, including the normalization of social activity after the pandemic, changes in policing and violence-prevention strategies, demographic shifts and the unwinding of the factors that contributed to the pandemic-era crime surge.
The declines also began before President Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025, making it difficult to attribute the national trend to policies implemented by his administration.
Cities with populations between 500,000 and 999,999 recorded the largest drop in violent crime, at 15.3%, according to the FBI. Smaller cities also saw double digit declines in overall violent crime.
Nonmetropolitan counties saw violent crime decline 6%, the smallest decrease among the population groups analyzed. No population group recorded an overall increase in violent crime.
Cities with populations over 1 million saw a 1.2% increase in rape between 2024 and 2025, the only increase in a specific violent crime among the population groups.
The data shows continued declines in several crimes that had surged in recent years. The estimated motor vehicle theft rate fell to 197 per 100,000 people in 2025, a 23% decrease from 2024 and a 38.8% decline from its 2023 peak. The robbery rate, at 49.4 per 100,000, was the lowest estimated rate in 20 years. Burglary and larceny-theft rates also reached 20-year lows.
The FBI reported declines in arrests of juveniles as well. The number of people under 18 arrested for violent crimes fell 5% in 2025, from 39,117 to 37,156, while juvenile arrests for property crimes fell 12.2%, from 77,779 to 68,281.
By comparison, adult violent-crime arrests fell 1.7%, and adult property-crime arrests fell 3.8%.
Despite the decline in reported crime, law enforcement cleared less than half of reported violent crimes in 2025. Agencies cleared 47.4% of reported violent crimes through an arrest or exceptional means, while just 17.4% of reported property crimes were cleared.
Some crime rates also remain higher than before the pandemic. The 2025 aggravated assault rate of 238 offenses per 100,000 people, for example, was lower than recent years but remained higher than every year from 2013 through 2015.
The FBI said preliminary data indicate crime continued to decline during the first half of 2026. Compared with the same period in 2025, violent crime was down 10.6%, while murder and nonnegligent manslaughter fell 23%, rape fell 18.6%, robbery fell 19.6% and aggravated assault fell 7.2%.
The latest national figures provide the most comprehensive accounting yet of the sharp decline in crime that followed the pandemic-era surge. The FBI’s 2025 murder rate of 4.1 per 100,000 compares with a recent high of 6.6 in both 2020 and 2022.
Stateline reporter Amanda Watford can be reached at [email protected].
This story was originally produced by Stateline, which is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network which includes Oregon Capital Chronicle, and is supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity.
Oregon Capital Chronicle is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Oregon Capital Chronicle maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Julia Shumway for questions: [email protected].