by Julia Shumway, Oregon Capital Chronicle
November 6, 2024
A bad election for Democrats nationally had few reverberations in Oregon, where Democratic candidates are expected to keep or expand legislative majorities, swept statewide offices and lead in three competitive congressional races.
Results won’t be final until the election is certified Dec. 2, and some races — including Oregon’s competitive 5th Congressional District — may take days to call. Election officials in Oregon’s 36 counties are still processing returned ballots, verifying signatures on ballot envelopes and waiting for some ballots that were postmarked Nov. 5 to be delivered.
Republicans were victorious nationwide, with Donald Trump winning a second term four years after losing the presidency. There’s only one other president, Democrat Grover Cleveland, who rebounded like that, winning in 1884, losing in 1888 and regaining the White House in 1892.
Republicans also gained control of the U.S. Senate, winning Democratic seats in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio to reach 52 of 100 Senate spots. Democrats are expected to keep at least 44 seats, with races in Arizona, Maine, Nevada and Pennsylvania too close to call. Oregon’s two Democratic U.S. senators — Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley — were not up for reelection.
The U.S. House remains too close to call, thanks to races including Oregon’s 4th, 5th and 6th congressional districts. Democratic incumbents Val Hoyle and Andrea Salinas in Oregon’s 4th and 6th are leading, but the Associated Press has yet to call their races. Salinas, leading by 8 points, declared victory Tuesday night in the 6th District against Republican Mike Erickson. Hoyle has a 9-point lead over Republican Monique DeSpain in the 4th District and said Wednesday she was glad the campaign was over so she could focus on legislative work.
Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum has a slimmer 2-point lead over Republican incumbent Lori Chavez-DeRemer in the 5th District. Additional results are expected Thursday at 5 p.m.
Oregon’s Democratic leaders, including Gov. Tina Kotek, signaled the state will stand ready to oppose Trump administration policies that run counter to values the majority of Oregonians support, as it did during his first term.
“Oregonians have shown they will continue to lead with compassion, courage, and conviction — protecting a place where everyone can be themselves, feel welcome and have equal opportunity to a healthy, prosperous life,” Kotek said Wednesday. “We will continue to march forward and stand together as a shield against any attempt to undermine our fundamental freedoms. Our laws, our policies, and our actions will remain a deterrent to any attacks on our values and our democracy.”
Democrats do well in Oregon races
Democrats are projected to win three Oregon statewide races, as they have in most elections for decades.
In the race for secretary of state, Democratic state Treasurer Tobias Read trounced Republican Dennis Linthicum, who was barred from running for reelection to the state Senate because of his participation in a six-week walkout protesting bills on abortion, gender-affirming care and guns. Linthicum, one of Oregon’s most prominent spreaders of election misinformation, sued to end the state’s mail elections before running to oversee elections. He had almost 43% of the vote to 54% for Read, while 3% of voters opted for Pacific Green Party candidate Nathalie Paravicini.
In the race to replace Read as treasurer, Democratic state Sen. Elizabeth Steiner prevailed over concerns that a third-party candidate would pull votes and that voters have an innate mistrust of women handling money. Steiner, who spent the past six years as one of the Legislature’s chief budget writers, is set to be Oregon’s first female treasurer after winning 49% of the vote.
And while Republicans fielded their strongest candidate for the attorney general’s race in years in former prosecutor Will Lathrop, former House Speaker Dan Rayfield is expected to win with about 54% of the vote to Lathrop’s 46%. The Corvallis Democrat will take over for Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum, who built a national reputation for challenging the Trump administration during Trump’s first term.
Democrats win supermajority in state Senate
Bend City Councilor Anthony Broadman will flip the Bend-based 27th Senate District, now held by former Senate Republican Leader Tim Knopp. Broadman has captured close to 60% of the votes tallied so far, with more results expected from Deschutes County.
His win means Democrats will hold 18 of 30 seats in the Senate in 2025 — that’s enough to pass new taxes or increase existing ones without Republican support, but not enough to negate the threat of a Republican walkout. Oregon’s high two-thirds quorum requirements mean 20 senators need to be present to conduct business.
In other tightly contested races, incumbent Sens. Dick Anderson, R-Lincoln City, and Chris Gorsek, D-Troutdale, are handily fending off challenges. Gorsek had about 55% of the vote to 45% for Republican Raymond Love, while Anderson was beating Democratic Florence City Councilor Jo Beaudreau with 54% of the vote to 46%.
Senate Majority Leader Kathleen Taylor welcomed the results in a statement Wednesday morning, saying “With upheaval and unreliable leadership returning to Washington D.C., now, more than ever, the Oregon state Legislature must stand up to protect Oregonians’ rights and freedoms. With the responsibility of holding a supermajority in our chamber, Senate Democrats will do everything in our power to make sure common sense wins out over chaos in our state, and I’m confident that we have elected the right leaders to make that happen.”
Balance of power in state House isn’t certain
The House is likely to stay at or near its current makeup of 35 Democrats and 25 Republicans, though some races remained too close to call. Republican incumbents in the Columbia River Gorge, north coast and rural Marion County widened their leads over Democratic challengers in results updated Wednesday evening.
In the 52nd District in the Columbia River Gorge, House Republican Leader Jeff Helfrich led Democratic challenger Nick Walden Poublon by 631 votes and almost 2 percentage points. Helfrich trailed in early results but picked up steam as more ballots were counted.
In the coastal 32nd District, incumbent Republican Cyrus Javadi has almost 52% of the vote to nearly 48% for Democrat Andy Davis. A few hundred votes separate incumbent Republican Tracy Cramer and Democratic challenger Lesly Muñoz in the Woodburn-based 22nd District, which had the lowest turnout in the state in 2022.
Only one Democratic incumbent, Rep. Hoa Nguyen, is in a close race. She leads Republican John Masterman by about 4 points in the 48th House District.
Democrats would need to pick up one more seat in the House to reach the three-fifths supermajority required to create or increase taxes.
Voters on track to reject three ballot measures, approve two
Voters signaled they want to give lawmakers the authority to impeach statewide officials and make it easier for cannabis industry employees to unionize, but they’re not on board with ranked choice voting, an independent commission setting elected official salaries or a new tax on businesses that promised checks for all Oregonians.
The last, Measure 118, failed most dramatically, with nearly 80% of voters across the state rejecting it. Opposition led by the lobby group Oregon Business & Industry raised millions to defeat the measure and rallied a diverse group of opponents including unions, businesses and legislators from across the political spectrum.
Nearly 60% of voters opposed Measure 117, which would have instituted ranked choice voting for statewide and federal races. Cities and counties can choose to enact the voting system on their own — Benton County has used it for years and Portland is running its first ranked choice election this year.
Measure 116, which would have created an independent commission to set salaries for elected officials, is failing by about 7 percentage points. Measure 115, to allow the Legislature to impeach statewide officials, is passing with about 63% of the vote, and Measure 119, to ease cannabis union formation, is passing by 11 points.
UPDATED at 5:10 p.m. with Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024 evening results
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