by Jerry Cornfield and Jake Goldstein-Street, Washington State Standard
November 4, 2026
Tuesday’s blue wave could remake the political landscape of Washington state.
A likely supermajority in the state House. A shocker in the 5th Congressional District. A walkover in the 3rd District. An emphatic affirmation of an income tax. These are signs of where the wave crested in a blue state. Voters responded to the second term of The Donald, a period featuring a war in Iran, surging gasoline and diesel prices, tariffs, and less federal aid for health care and social services.
But the leftward trend didn’t carry over to a conservative-backed initiative to bar transgender girls from girls’ sports in public schools.
Over 2 million ballots have been counted. Hundreds of thousands remain to be tallied in the coming days.
Here are four takeaways from Tuesday’s results.
GOP sings the blues
Republicans in the state House woke up Wednesday – presuming they went to bed — to see at least 13 seats they now hold could be lost to Democrats depending on those future counts.
That would be a third of their caucus. It would mean Democrats attain a supermajority, meaning they can pass bonds, override vetoes by a governor, and advance constitutional amendments without any of their votes.
GOP leaders knew, based on primary results, their four incumbents in southwest Washington were in trouble and the party’s grip on a seat in a blue-turning district in Pierce and Kitsap counties was slipping.
On election night the scenario worsened. Democrats also led races for four more Republican-held seats, including two in the Yakima Valley, one in the Cascades-straddling 12th District and another in the Puyallup-area 25th District. Republicans are barely ahead in four other contests.
“This is a low point for the Republican party,” GOP campaign consultant Alex Hays said.
The wave carried Democratic U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez to an unexpectedly easy win over a formidable foe in state Senate Republican Leader John Braun. She claimed victory Tuesday night when she had 55% of the vote. AP called the race early Wednesday. In contrast, her first win in 2022 went to a recount and in her re-election she finished with just under 52%.
Imagine eastern Washington’s surprise when the wave crossed the Cascades into the 5th Congressional District, putting the re-election of Republican U.S. Rep. Michael Baumgartner in jeopardy.
This is reliable Republican terrain. Yet Baumgartner is only up a percentage point on Carmela Conroy, his Democratic challenger. Two years ago, he defeated her by 21 percentage points.
Where do Republicans go from here? Leadership changes in the House caucus and the state party could be on the horizon.
Taxing the rich paid dividends
Washington voters have been asked numerous times over the past century to allow an income tax. Each time, they’ve said no. Tuesday was different, as Initiative 645 to repeal the high-earners income tax passed this year was failing by a wide margin.
Will this win embolden Democratic state lawmakers to feel voters could be okay with them eventually lowering the tax threshold below $1 million? Gov. Bob Ferguson, a Democrat, has vowed to veto such legislation if it reached his desk.
Winning at the ballot was the first battle. A legal fight is next; the state Supreme Court is expected to be called on to decide the tax’s constitutionality. The membership of that court will be different from today as a result of the election.
Voters filled five of the state high court’s nine seats. Those races received much more attention and money than usual, with the prospect of the income tax legal scrap looming. They served as a statewide proxy battle between Democrats and Republicans, with each political party backing a slate.
Four candidates backed by Democratic forces are leading. A fifth, appeals court Judge Ian Birk is trailing King County Superior Court Sean O’Donnell in a race that will take a few days to decide. O’Donnell had the support of Republican forces, including the state party, but also a distinguished list of Democrats such as former Gov. Christine Gregoire.
This duel had all the strains of a contest for a partisan office, sowing interest in whether whoever wins might play a decisive role in a future income tax ruling.
Sports are personal, not partisan
Early results show voter decisions on Initiative 638 to ban transgender girls from girls’ sports were not driven by one’s political ethos or the partisan currents.
It passed in 36 of 39 counties. It failed in King, Jefferson and San Juan counties, all home to large numbers of liberals.
Even in King, tens of thousands of people who voted to preserve the millionaire’s tax also voted for the ban. In Clark County, 61% voted for Gluesenkamp Perez and 60% voted for the ban, which was vociferously supported by Braun.
This looks to be a case where individuals understood the initiative and individuals had strong views. It wasn’t a trick question and had received lots of coverage with recent high-profile examples of transgender students competing in school sporting events in Washington.
A legal challenge to the initiative is expected.
Whither Let’s Go Washington
Since Brian Heywood registered Let’s Go Washington as a political committee in 2022, he’s used his money and mouth to make it a relevant force in state politics. Five of its 10 initiatives have made it into law though Democratic lawmakers subsequently found ways to neuter two and the courts tossed another.
Tuesday they lost a big one, Initiative 645 and passed a big one as well, Initiative 638.
Setbacks are hard. For Heywood it’s costly. The hedge fund manager has invested millions of dollars into the effort to redress what he sees as overreach in fiscal and social policy by the ruling Democratic majority. His foes hope he’s tiring and will stop.
On Tuesday night, in front of the committee’s supporters and volunteers, Heywood didn’t sound like a millionaire throwing in the towel. He emphasized that the issues they tackle aren’t partisan but grounded in common sense.
“We’ve tried to give a voice to those who feel like Olympia stomped on them, won’t listen to them, and they’re up against the machine,” he said. “We built an infrastructure that I think can do something that is meaningful in this state and should give people a reason not to give up.”
Translated: Let’s Go Washington isn’t going anywhere.
Andrew Barrett contributed to this report.
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