by Julia Shumway, Oregon Capital Chronicle
September 26, 2024
Polling over the summer shows a Republican challenger gaining ground in a key Oregon state Senate race that could determine whether Democrats regain the supermajority that would allow them to pass tax bills without Republican support.
Senate Republicans this week shared a polling memo conducted on behalf of Raymond Love, an Army Reserves colonel challenging Democratic state Sen. Chris Gorsek in the 25th Senate District in east Multnomah County. Salem-based Nelson Research surveyed 320 likely voters in July and 393 likely voters in September and found support for Gorsek shrinking.
While 15 Senate seats are up for election this November, only three are in competitive districts. Along with the 25th Senate District, Republican Sen. Dick Anderson of Lincoln City is defending his seat in the coastal 5th Senate District and Democrat Anthony Broadman and Republican Michael Summers are vying for the Bend-based 27th Senate District, now represented by Republican Tim Knopp. Both districts have more registered Democrats than Republicans.
Democrats hold 17 seats in the Senate, one shy of the 18-vote threshold for creating new taxes or raising existing ones. Winning either of the Republican-held districts could make it easier to pass a substantial transportation funding package next year, while losing Gorsek’s seat would require winning in both Republican districts to reach a supermajority.
The polling memo sent by the Senate GOP’s campaign arm doesn’t include a margin of error. But Nelson Research reported that its July poll found that more than 51% of respondents supported Democrats in general and 43% preferred Gorsek, and that went down to 46% and 39% by September. Support for Republicans rose from almost 34% in July to 39% in September, while Love’s support went from 29% to 36%.
The district has about 89,000 registered voters, and about 32% are Democrats compared with nearly 20% Republicans.
The firm, owned by Republican lobbyist J.L. Wilson, attributed that dramatic swing in part to increased enthusiasm over Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the new Democratic nominee. National polling averages have shown Harris’ already slim lead over Republican Donald Trump narrowing since late August.
“On balance, surveys conducted in late July and August produced distorted results favoring Democratic candidates due to the unique circumstances of Kamala Harris’s ascension to be the Democratic nominee for president and the temporary enthusiasm it generated among some survey respondents,” the polling memo said. “It, in fact, produced a ‘response bias’ during this period in which newly energized voting blocs were all too eager to talk to pollsters. By September, this response bias has largely subsided and has produced a more accurate reflection of voter sentiment.”
Love, for his part, credited his campaign strategy of knocking on more than 4,000 doors in the district.
“I’ve been out walking nearly every day of the week, and people are upset with Gorsek’s representation over the last four years,” he said in a statement. “The response at the doors has been overwhelming; voters are ready for a change.”
Oliver Muggli, executive director of the Senate Democratic Leadership Fund, said Nelson Research isn’t a reputable polling firm and noted that it has a low rating on poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, which gave the firm a score of 1.4 out of three stars after analyzing one poll.
East Multnomah County has emerged as a battleground in recent elections. Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek won the Senate district by just 50 votes in 2022, and a conservative candidate won the race for Multnomah County district attorney this spring.
Along with Gorsek in the Senate, Republicans are targeting state Reps. Zach Hudson and Ricki Ruiz, Democrats who represent the 49th and 50th House Districts nested in the Senate district.
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