by Julia Shumway, Oregon Capital Chronicle
August 20, 2024
A national analysis group that correctly predicted the Oregon Legislature’s partisan split after the 2022 elections is now forecasting solid Democratic majorities.
CNalysis, the country’s only elections forecasting group that forecasts legislative elections, is predicting a 39-21 Democratic majority in the state House and an 18-11 split in the state Senate.
Those margins would give Democratic leaders breathing room as they try to negotiate a new transportation funding package during the 2025 session, as any attempts to create new taxes or raise existing ones requires a supermajority of 18 votes in the Senate and 36 in the House. Democrats now hold 17 Senate seats and 35 in the House.
Republicans conceded months ago that their chances of taking the majority in the Senate are basically nil, simply because of which seats are up for grabs. Senators serve staggered four-year terms, and the most competitive districts have elections in midterm years. They’re focused on defending two districts now held by Republicans and possibly flipping a Democratic seat in east Multnomah County.
In the House, where all 60 seats are up for election, Democrats and Republicans are fighting harder over control. Here’s a look at the handful of competitive legislative elections, and what CNalysis forecasted:
Senate
The forecasting group only considers two of the state’s Senate races to be competitive: the 5th District along the central coast and the 25th District in east Multnomah County. Both feature incumbent senators running for reelection.
Sen. Dick Anderson, R-Lincoln City, in the 5th District is one of only three Republican Senate incumbents allowed to run for reelection after most of his caucus skipped floor sessions for six weeks in 2023 and were disqualified from serving subsequent terms. The central coast has slightly favored Republicans in recent elections – Donald Trump won the district by about 3 points in 2016 and 2020, and Republican gubernatorial nominee Christine Drazan won it by almost 7 in 2022.
But voters in half of Anderson’s district also elected a moderate Democrat, David Gomberg of Otis, to represent them in the state House. The forecast rates the district as a tossup between Anderson and Democratic challenger Jo Beaudreau, a Florence city councilor.
The forecast gave much better odds to Sen. Chris Gorsek, D-Troutdale, in his own reelection battle in the 25th District. Gorsek won by almost 4 points in his 2020 race and the district boundaries haven’t changed much after redistricting in 2021. But Republicans see hope in 2022 results: Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek won the district by just one-tenth of a point. Still, the forecast says it’s “very likely” Gorsek will prevail over Republican challenger Raymond Love.
Oregon politicos are also paying close attention to central Oregon’s 27th Senate District, where former Senate Republican leader Tim Knopp is disqualified from running again and Bend City Councilor Anthony Broadman is trying to give Bend an entirely Democratic slate of legislators. He’ll face Redmond School Board chair Michael Summers in November.
Bend and Redmond have shifted to the left in recent years, and Kotek won the district by more than 8 points in 2022. The national forecast rated the district solidly Democratic.
House
There are no tossups in the House model, and the four closest predicted races were forecasted to tilt toward Democrats. Those all have Republican incumbents – the Salem-based 21st House District represented by Rep. Kevin Mannix, the Woodburn-based 22nd District represented by Rep. Tracy Cramer, the 32nd District along the northwest coast represented by Rep. Cyrus Javadi and the 52nd District in the Columbia River Gorge represented by House Minority Leader Jeff Helfrich.
CNalysis incorrectly predicted Mannix’s race in 2022, though its overall forecast remained correct because it also underestimated Democrat Emerson Levy in the Bend-based 53rd District. Mannix, an attorney and architect of many of Oregon’s tough-on-crime laws from the 1990s, is well-known in Salem, and Democrats hope this year to unseat him by running a well-known Salem city councilor, Virginia Stapleton.
Cramer, R-Gervais, flipped a Democratic-held seat that includes farming communities in north Marion County that voted for Democratic President Joe Biden in 2020 then endorsed Drazan’s Republican bid for governor in 2022. Cramer will face Democrat Lesly Munoz, a consultant for the Oregon Education Association.
Javadi, R-Tillamook, expected a rematch with Democrat Logan Laity, a small business marketer who he beat two years ago by 2.5 percentage points and fewer than 850 votes in the coastal 32nd District. But Laity withdrew this summer because of a work relocation and Javadi will instead face Astoria City Councilor Andy Davis. The district went for Biden in 2020 and 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton by one-fifth of a point, but Drazan won it by nearly 3 points in 2022.
Helfrich will face drug and alcohol prevention specialist Nick Walden Poublon in the 52nd District, which Helfrich won by 5 points in 2022. The district also voted for Drazan, though it supported Democrats for president in 2016 and 2020.
Other swing districts held by Democrats are rated as “likely Democratic” in the forecast, including:
-The 7th District in Lane County, where Rep. John Lively, D-Springfield, will face business development manager Cory Burket;
-The 40th District in Clackamas County where Rep. Annessa Hartman, D-Gladstone will face Michael Newgard, an Army Blackhawk helicopter pilot.
– The 48th District in Clackamas and Multnomah counties, where Rep. Hoa Nguyen, D-Portland, will face business owner John Masterman.
– The 49th District in Multnomah County where Rep. Zach Hudson, D-Troutdale, faces Republican Terry Tipsord, owner of a business development company.
– The 50th District in east Multnomah County where Rep. Ricki Ruiz, D-Gresham, is up against Republican Paul Drechsler, who owns a landscape supply business.
– And the 53rd District in central Oregon, where Levy is defending her seat against Redmond School Board member Keri Lopez.
One district that could be considered competitive based on voter registration, the 31st District northwest of Portland, voted for Republicans by nearly 20 points in 2022. The forecast rates it as likely Republican, with GOP real estate agent Darcey Edwards favored to win over Democratic tax consultant Jordan Gutierrez.
GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX
Oregon Capital Chronicle is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Oregon Capital Chronicle maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Lynne Terry for questions: [email protected]. Follow Oregon Capital Chronicle on Facebook and X.